Incorporating Temperature-Dependent Mortality into Projected Life Tables

Abstract

Climate change may affect mortality patterns through changes in temperature exposure, with potential implications for life tables and life-contingent insurance liabilities. This paper presents a methodology for incorporating temperature-dependent mortality into projected life tables at the city level. The approach integrates epidemiological temperature–mortality relationships with standard actuarial mortality projection frameworks while preserving existing actuarial practices. Climate effects enter through a transparent, age- and year-specific multiplicative adjustment to baseline all-cause mortality rates, under alternative climate scenarios represented by Representative Concentration Pathways. Using Bucharest as an illustrative example, the paper shows how climate-adjusted mortality translates into changes in expected present values of annuities and life insurance contracts, and in technical provisions. Uncertainty from epidemiological estimation, climate model projections and adaptation assumptions is propagated through Monte Carlo simulation.

Authors: D. Precioso, F. J. Suárez Pedraza, S. Lloyd, C. Boado-Penas, D. Gómez-Ullate.

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