Climate Risk Modeling for Insurance
Published:
Climate change is beginning to affect mortality patterns, life expectancy, and the long-term assumptions used in life and health insurance. Insurers need ways to translate climate projections into actuarial quantities that can be inspected, stress tested, and discussed with decision makers.
At IE University, in collaboration with Vienna Insurance Group, I work on models that connect temperature exposure and other climate risk factors with mortality outcomes across regions, age groups, and future scenarios. The project combines epidemiological evidence, demographic data, and climate projections to produce climate-adjusted death probabilities and life-table quantities for insurance analysis.
My contribution focuses on the applied modeling and decision-support side of the work. This includes building analysis pipelines for scenario-based mortality projections, supporting dashboard development for portfolio exploration, and helping translate technical results into outputs that can be reviewed with insurance stakeholders.
The project sits at the intersection of climate science, statistics, and actuarial modeling, and extends my work into a new application domain while staying close to the same core themes of forecasting, uncertainty, and decision support.